Transitioning from fossil energy to lower-emission solutions is not a simple or predictable process. Markets develop unevenly, regulation changes, technologies mature at different speeds, and customers still need reliable energy every day.

For St1, that reality is exactly why the company has built its Energy Transition Roadmap.

“It’s a data-based scenario tool that helps us understand how St1’s business and value chains could transition towards lower-emission energy over the next 25 years,” says Emilia Lamminpää, Head of Sustainability Performance at St1.

Emilia Lamminpää, Head of Sustainability Performance at St1

The roadmap is designed to support long-term decision-making across St1’s energy transition work. Rather than predicting the future, it helps the company evaluate how different developments could affect demand, supply including investments, and, as a result, emissions over time.

“It’s not a short-term forecast,” explains Jarmo Laaninen, Climate and Energy Analyst Lead at St1. “The roadmap looks towards 2050 and helps us understand what the transition could require under different scenarios.”

From ambition to practical decisions

At the centre of the roadmap is a simple idea: the transition only works if solutions function in the real world.

That means balancing climate targets with security of supply, affordability, infrastructure, predictable and consistent regulation and customer needs.

“We cannot do the transition alone,” Jarmo says. “We need close collaboration with customers in different sectors to understand their plans, timelines and practical challenges.”

The roadmap therefore starts with end-use sectors and customer demand, linking this to St1’s supply, logistics and investments.

For example, road transport is already changing rapidly through electrification and increased use of biomethane and liquid biofuels. Other sectors, such as aviation and marine, are expected to transition more gradually over the coming decades.

“There needs to be demand for low-emission solutions,” Emilia says. “And the transition also needs to be economically realistic for our customers.”

A tool for navigating uncertainty

The roadmap is updated regularly and built to adapt as conditions change.

According to the team behind it, uncertainty is not a flaw in the model, it is part of the reality the model is designed to handle.

“The underlying model is dynamic,” Jarmo says. “Regulation, market conditions and customer demand can change, and the roadmap needs to reflect that.”

The tool combines data and assumptions from across the business, including market outlooks, sector demand, regulation and investment plans. But the team is clear that the roadmap itself does not make decisions.

“It supports decision-making,” Emilia says. “But priorities and investments are still decided by people.”

Jarmo Laaninen, Climate and Energy Analyst Lead at St1

Making the transition visible

For St1, the roadmap is also intended to create a more transparent and shared understanding of how the company approaches the transition towards low-emission energy.

“This work helps us make the transition more concrete across the organisation,” Emilia says. “It creates a shared picture of where we are heading and what reaching net-zero could require in practice.”

Interested in learning more? You can find more information about our energy transition roadmap here: https://st1.com/about-us/sustainability/energy-transition/energy-transition-roadmap

Fact box

St1’s Energy Transition Roadmap in brief:

  • A long-term scenario tool with a 25-year perspective

  • Built to support decision-making across supply, sales and investments

  • Links customer demand with energy supply and investments

  • Updated regularly as markets and regulation evolve

  • Used to support climate-related analysis and target-setting